Table of contents
Introduction
Part 1: Introduction to Probability
Chapter 1: What Do You Believe and How Do You Change it?
Chapter 2: Measuring Uncertainty
Chapter 3: The Logic of Uncertainty
Chapter 4: Probability Distributions 1
Chapter 5: Probability Distributions 2
Part 2: Bayesian Probability and Prior Probabilities
Chapter 6: Conditional Probability
Chapter 7: Bayes' Theorem with LEGO
Chapter 8: Posterior, Likelihood, and Prior
Chapter 9: Working with Prior Probability Distributions
Part 3: Parameter Estimation
Chapter 10: Intro to Parameter Estimation
Chapter 11: Measuring the Spread of Data
Chapter 12: Normal Distribution and Confidence
Chapter 13: Tools of Parameter Estimation
Chapter 14: Parameter Estimation with Priors
Part 4: Hypothesis Testing: The Heart of Statistics
Chapter 15: From Parameter Estimation to Hypothesis Testing
Chapter 16: Comparing Hypotheses with Bayes Factor
Chapter 17: Bayesian Reasoning in the Twilight Zone
Chapter 18: When Data Doesn't Convince You
Chapter 19: From Hypothesis Testing to Parameter Estimation
Appendix A: A Crash Course in R
Appendix B: Enough Calculus to Get By
Appendix C: Answers to Exercises