第2版前言
第1章 行为学基础 1
1.1 传统公司金融决策与心理学现象 1
1.2 偏差 4
1.3 经验推断法 11
1.4 框架效应 16
1.5 缓解陷阱 23
本章小结 25
拓展性阅读 26
关键词 26
网络探索 27
本章习题 27
小案例 巴拿马运河 30
第2章 行为分析学简介 32
2.1 公司金融决策的传统分析方法 32
2.2 从行为学角度看公司金融决策方法 33
2.3 剖析偏差 35
2.4 剖析经验推断法 41
2.5 价值破坏与太阳微系统公司的结局 43
2.6 框架效应分析 44
2.7 纠偏与助推 51
本章小结 52
拓展性阅读 53
关键词 53
网络探索 53
本章习题 53
小案例 福岛第一核电站泄漏事件 55
第3章 价值评估 58
3.1 估值的传统分析方法 58
3.2 股票价格的经验推断法 59
3.3 一位首席财务官对经验估值推断方法的使用 61
3.4 分析师如何评价企业：一个阐述性案例 61
3.5 经验估值法与偏差：基于事前的分析 66
3.6 经验推断法与偏差：基于事后的分析 72
3.7 与自由现金流模型有关的偏差 75
3.8 委托代理冲突 77
本章小结 77
拓展性阅读 78
关键词 78
网络探索 78
本章习题 79
小案例 安泰保险公司 81
第4章 资本预算 85
4.1 资本预算的传统分析方法 85
4.2 规划谬误 86
4.3 资本预算中的过度乐观和过度自信 88
4.4 项目采纳的准则 95
4.5 不愿终止已亏损项目 99
4.6 确认性偏差和沉没成本：实例说明 102
本章小结 105
拓展性阅读 105
关键词 106
网络探索 106
本章习题 106
小案例 美高梅公司国际酒店集团：拉斯维加斯城市中心赌场 107
第5章 无效市场与公司决策 110
5.1 市场效率的传统理论 110
5.2 市场效率的行为理论 111
5.3 市场效率、盈余指导以及净现值 115
5.4 股票分拆 116
5.5 公司首次公开发行决策 118
本章小结 126
拓展性阅读 126
关键词 126
网络探索 126
本章习题 127
小案例 Groupon网、Facebook和Twitter的首次公开发行 128
第6章 风险和收益 131
6.1 风险和收益的传统分析方法 131
6.2 市场风险溢价估值中的心理因素 133
6.3 财务主管对市场风险溢价的判断偏误 136
6.4 管理者、内部人交易和赌徒谬误 140
6.5 财务主管对风险、收益和折现率的判断偏误 141
本章小结 143
拓展性阅读 144
关键词 144
网络探索 144
本章习题 144
小案例 埃隆·马斯克，特斯拉汽车，风险和收益 145
第7章 资本结构 149
7.1 资本结构的传统分析方法 149
7.2 关于融资和投资的行为考虑 151
7.3 管理者如何在实践中对资本结构进行选择 153
7.4 市场择时：如何成功 157
7.5 财务灵活性和项目门槛回报率 161
7.6 投资对现金流的敏感性 163
7.7 心理学现象与融资、投资和现金之间的相互依存 165
7.8 迎合市场？来自短期与长期的冲突 171
本章小结 172
拓展性阅读 173
关键词 173
网络探索 173
本章习题 173
小案例 Cogent通信公司和PSINet 176
第8章 股利政策 180
8.1 股利的传统分析方法 180
8.2 股利和投资者：心理学 181
8.3 管理者如何看待股利：调查数据 185
8.4 股利政策和投资者偏好 189
本章小结 193
拓展性阅读 194
关键词 194
网络探索 194
本章习题 195
小案例 苹果公司 196
第9章 代理冲突和公司治理 200
9.1 代理冲突的传统分析方法 200
9.2 基于业绩的薪酬：实践 201
9.3 一些心理学现象 204
9.4 激励、会计、审计和心理 209
9.5 《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》和COSO 212
9.6 欺诈和股票期权：一个例证 213
9.7 道德和欺骗 217
本章小结 222
拓展性阅读 222
关键词 223
网络探索 223
本章习题 223
小案例 赫兹租车公司 225
第10章 兼并与收购 227
10.1 兼并与收购的传统分析方法 227
10.2 赢家诅咒 228
10.3 过度乐观、过度自信及其他影响收购公司管理者的心理现象 228
10.4 相关理论 233
10.5 美国在线-时代华纳公司：因相信市场价格而导致的危害 238
10.6 惠普公司和康柏电脑：董事会决策 243
本章小结 248
拓展性阅读 249
关键词 249
网络探索 249
本章习题 249
小案例 雅虎！ 251
第11章 财务管理和群体决策过程 257
11.1 财务管理的传统分析方法 257
11.2 过程损失 258
11.3 群体错误的一般原因 259
11.4 全球金融危机：不同公司的经验 262
本章小结 266
拓展性阅读 267
关键词 267
网络探索 267
本章习题 267
小案例 东芝集团 268
注释 271
Table of Contents
Preface to the Second Edition
Chapter 1
Behavioral Foundations 1
1.1 Traditional Corporate Financial Decisions and Psychological Tasks 1
Dual Systems 3
1.2 Biases 4
Excessive Optimism 4
Overconfidence 6
Confirmation Bias 8
Illusion of Control 9
1.3 Heuristics 11
Representativeness 11
Availability 12
Anchoring and Adjustment 13
Affect Heuristic 14
Interacting Phenomena 15
1.4 Framing Effects 16
Loss Aversion 16
The Fourfold Risk Pattern 17
Framing Pitfalls 19
Prospect Theory 21
Aspiration Points 22
1.5 Mitigating Pitfalls 23
Summary 25
Additional Behavioral Readings 26
Key Terms 26
Explore the Web 27
Chapter Questions 27
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 1 Are Available at www.mhhe.com /shefrin2e 30
Minicase: Panama Canal 30
Case Analysis Questions 31
Chapter 2
Introduction to Behavioral Analysis 32
2.1 Traditional Treatment of Corporate Financial Decisions 32
2.2 Behavioral Treatment of Corporate Financial Decisions 33
2.3 Analyzing Biases 35
Excessive Optimism 36
Overconfidence 38
Confirmation Bias 40
Illusion of Control 40
2.4 Analyzing Heuristics 41
Representativeness 41
Availability 41
Anchoring and Adjustment 42
Affect Heuristic 42
2.5 Value Destruction and Sun’s Endgame 43
2.6 Analyzing Framing Effects 44
Loss Aversion 46
Aversion to a Sure Loss 48
Lawsuits and Aftermath 49
2.7 Debiasing and Nudges 51
Summary 52
Additional Behavioral Readings 53
Key Terms 53
Explore the Web 53
Chapter Questions 53
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 2 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e 55
Minicase: Nuclear Meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi 55
Case Analysis Questions 57
Chapter 3Valuation 58
3.1 Traditional Approach to Valuation 58
3.2 Target Price Heuristics 59
P∕E Heuristic 60
PEG Heuristic 60
Price-to-Sales Heuristic 60
3.3 A CFO’s Reliance on Valuation Heuristics 61
3.4 How Analysts Value Firms: An Illustrative Example 61
Analyst Mary Meeker 61
The Morgan Stanley Team’s Mid-2004 Price Target for eBay 62
3.5 Valuation Heuristics and Biases: in Foresight 66
Optimism Bias: In Foresight 66
Biases Associated with P∕E, PEG, and PVGO: In Foresight 69
Biases Related to the 1∕n Heuristic: In Foresight 71
Biases Using the CAPM Heuristic: In Foresight 72
3.6 Valuation Heuristics and Biases: In Hindsight 72
3.7 Biases Associated with Free Cash Flow Formula 75
3.8 Agency Conflicts 77
Summary 77
Additional Behavioral Readings 78
Key Terms 78
Explore the Web 78
Chapter Questions 79
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 3 Are Available at www.mhhe.com /shefrin2e 81
Minicase: Aetna 81
Case Analysis Questions84
Chapter 4Capital Budgeting 85
Traditional Treatment of Capital Budgeting 85
The Planning Fallacy 86
The Planning Fallacy in Aircraft Manufacturing 87
4.3 Excessive Optimism and Overconfidence in Capital Budgeting 88
Excessive Optimism in Public-Sector Projects 88
Excessive Optimism in Private-Sector Projects 89
Agency Conflict Determinants of Excessive Optimism 91
Overconfidence 92
Psychological Determinants of Excessive Optimism and Overconfidence 92
4.4 Project Adoption Criteria 95
The Importance of Intuition 96
The Affect Heuristic 97
Choice, Value, and the Affect Heuristic 97
4.5 Reluctance to Terminate Losing Projects 99
Aversion to a Sure Loss 99
Escalation of Commitment 101
4.6 Confirmation Bias and Sunk Costs: Illustrative Example 102
Behavioral Bias and Agency Conflicts at Syntex 103
Summary 105
Additional Behavioral Readings 105
Key Terms 106
Explore the Web 106
Chapter Questions 106
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 4 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e 107
Minicase: MGM Resorts International: Las Vegas CityCenter 107
Case Analysis Questions 109
Chapter 5Inefficient Markets and Corporate Decisions 110
5.1 Traditional Approach to Market Efficiency 110
5.2 Behavioral Approach to Market Efficiency 111
Irrational Exuberance and Stocks as a Whole 112
Sentiment Beta 112
Limits to Arbitrage 113
Risk and Sentiment 114
Managerial Decisions: Market Timing and Catering 114
5.3 Market Efficiency, Earnings Guidance, and NPV 115
5.4 Stock Splits 116
Example: Tandy’s Stock Split 117
5.5 To IPO or Not to IPO 118
Three Phenomena 118
IPO Decisions 119
Summary 126
Additional Behavioral Readings 126
Key Terms 126
Explore the Web 126
Chapter Questions 127
Minicase: The IPOs of Groupon, Facebook, andTwitter 128
Case Analysis Questions 130
Chapter 6Perceptions about Risk and Return 131
6.1 Traditional Treatment of Risk and Return 131
6.2 Psychological Issues Estimating the Market Risk Premium 133
Die-Rolling 134
Extrapolation Bias: The Hot-Hand Fallacy 135
Gambler’s Fallacy 136
6.3 Biases in Financial Executives’ Judgments of Market Risk Premium 136
Overview 137
Detailed Look 137
6.4 Executives, Insider Trading, and Gambler’s Fallacy 140
6.5 Biases in Financial Executives’ Judgments Relating to Risk, Return, and Discount Rates 141
Discount Rate and WACC 142
Summary 143
Additional Behavioral Readings 144
Key Terms 144
Explore the Web 144
Chapter Questions 144
Minicase: Elon Musk, Tesla Motors, Risk, and Return 145
Case Analysis Questions 148
Chapter 7Capital Structure 149
7.1 Traditional Approach to Capital Structure 149
7.2 Behavioral Considerations Pertaining to Financing and Investment 151
7.3 How Do Managers Make Choices About Capital Structure inPractice 153
New Equity: Market Timing 154
New Debt: Financial Flexibility and Debt Timing 155
Target Debt-to-Equity Ratio 155
Traditional Pecking Order 157
7.4 Market Timing: How Successful 157
Perception of Overvalued Equity: New Issues 158
Perception of Undervalued Equity: Repurchases 159
Debt Market Timing 160
7.5 Financial Flexibility and Project Hurdle Rates 161
Undervalued Equity: Cash-Poor Firms Reject Some Positive NPV Projects 161
Undervalued Equity for Cash-Limited Firms: Invest or Repurchase 161
7.6 Sensitivity of Investment to Cash Flow 163
7.7 Psychological Phenomena and Interdependencies among Financing, Investment, and Cash 165
Excessive Optimism, Overconfidence, andCash 167
Identifying Excessively Optimistic, Overconfident Executives 168Assessing Value 169
7.8 Catering and the Conflict Between Short-Term and Long-Term Horizons 171
Summary 172
Additional Behavioral Readings 173
Key Terms 173
Explore the Web 173
Chapter Questions 173
Minicase: Cogent Communications andPSINet 176
Case Analysis Questions 177
Chapter 8Dividend Policy 180
8.1 Traditional Approach to Payouts 180
8.2 Dividends and Investors: Psychology 181
Dividends and Risk: Bird in the Hand 181
Self-Control and Behavioral Life Cycle Hypothesis: Widows and Orphans 182
Institutional Investors 184
8.3 Survey Data Describing How Managers Think about Dividends 185
Changing Payout Policies: Some History 185
Survey Evidence 186
8.4 Dividend Policy and Investors’ Tastes 189Citizens Utilities Company 189
Catering and Price Effects 190
Behavioral Signaling 191
Summary 193
Additional Behavioral Readings 194
Key Terms 194
Explore the Web 194
Chapter Questions 195
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 8 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e 196
Minicase: Apple 196
Case Analysis Questions 198
Chapter 9Agency Conflicts and Corporate Governance 200
9.1 Traditional Approach to Agency Conflicts 200
9.2 Paying for Performance in Practice 201
Low Variability 202
Dismissal 202
Stock Options 202
Shareholder Rights 203
9.3 Psychological Phenomena 204
From the Mouths of Directors 204
Prospect Theory and Stock Option-Based Compensation 204
Risk Aversion and Impatience 206
Relative Incomes 209
9.4 Incentives, Accounting, Auditing, and Psychology 209
Earnings Management 210
Auditing 210
9.5 Sarbanes-Oxley and COSO 212
Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) 212
COSO 213
9.6 Fraud and Stock Options: Illustrative Example 213
Signs of Disease 216
9.7 Ethics and Cheating 217
Why Students Cheat 219
Ethics and Psychology: Why People Cheat 219
Summary 222
Additional Behavioral Readings 222
Key Terms 223
Explore the Web 223
Chapter Questions 223
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 9 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e 225
Minicase: Hertz 225
Case Analysis Questions 226
Chapter 10Mergers and Acquisitions 227
10.1 Traditional Approach to M&A 227
10.2 The Winner’s Curse 228
10.3 Optimism, Overconfidence, and Other Psychological Phenomena Impacting Acquiring Executives 228
Psychological Drivers of Risk in M&A 231
Reference Point-Based Heuristic Effects on Deal Negotiations 232
10.4 Theory 233
Symmetric Information, Rational Managers, and Efficient Prices 233
Excessive Optimism and Overconfidence When Prices Are Efficient 234
Inefficient Prices, the Acquisition Premium, andCatering 235
Asymmetric Information and the Winner’s Curse 237
10.5 AOL Time Warner: The Danger of Trusting Market Prices 238
Strategy and Synergy 238
Valuation 238
Asset Writedown 240
Hubris 242
Aftermath 242
10.6 Hewlett-Packard and Compaq Computer: Board Decisions 243
The Merger Alternative 243
Psychological Basis for the Decision to Acquire Compaq 244
Valuation 244
HP’s Board Accepts Reality 246
Aftermath 247
Summary 248
Additional Behavioral Readings 249
Key Terms 249
Explore the Web 249
Chapter Questions 249
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter 10 Are Available at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e 251
Minicase: Yahoo! 251
Case Analysis Questions 255
Chapter 11Financial Management and Group Process 257
11.1 Traditional Approach to Financial Management 257
11.2 Process Loss 258
11.3 General Reasons for Group Errors 259
Groupthink 259
Poor Information Sharing 260
Inadequate Motivation 262
11.4 The Global Financial Crisis: Experiences of Different Firms 262
Financial Instability Hypothesis 263
Problematic Group Process and Psychological Phenomena at Financial Firms 264
Summary 266
Additional Behavioral Readings 267
Key Terms 267
Explore the Web 267
Chapter Questions 267
Additional Resources and Materials for Chapter11 Are Avallable at www.mhhe.com/shefrin2e 268
Case Analysis Questions 269
Endnotes 271