Acknowledgments ix
Introduction 1
TO 1200: BEGINNINGS
1. The Winds of the Greeks and the Role
of the Dice 11
2. As Easy as I, II, III 23
1200–1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS
3. The Renaissance Gambler 39
4. The French Connection 57
5. The Remarkable Notions of the Remarkable Notions Man 73
1700–1900: MEASUREMENT UNLIMITED
6. Considering the Nature of Man 99
7. The Search for Moral Certainty 116
8. The Supreme Law of Unreason 135
9. The Man with the Sprained Brain 152
10. Peapods and Perils 172
11. The Fabric of Felicity 187
1900–1960: CLOUDS OF VAGUENESS AND THE DEMAND FOR PRECISION
12. The Measure of Our Ignorance 197
13. The Radically Distinct Notion 215
14. The Man Who Counted Everything Except Calories 231
15. The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stockbroker 247
DEGREES OF BELIEF:EXPLORING UNCERTAINTY
16. The Failure of Invariance 269
17. The Theory Police 284
18. The Fantastic System of Side Bets 304
19. Awaiting the Wildness 329
Notes 339
Bibliography 353
Name Index 365
Subject Index 369