CONTENTS
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Epigraph

WHEN AM I GOING TO USE THIS?
PART I
Linearity
One. LESS LIKE SWEDEN
Two. STRAIGHT LOCALLY, CURVED GLOBALLY
Three. EVERYONE IS OBESE
Four. HOW MUCH IS THAT IN DEAD AMERICANS?
Five. MORE PIE THAN PLATE
PART II
Inference
Six. THE BALTIMORE STOCKBROKER AND THE BIBLE CODE
Seven. DEAD FISH DON’T READ MINDS
Eight. REDUCTIO AD UNLIKELY
Nine. THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HARUSPICY
Ten. ARE YOU THERE, GOD? IT’S ME, BAYESIAN INFERENCE
PART III
Expectation
Eleven. WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING TO WIN THE LOTTERY
Twelve. MISS MORE PLANES!
Thirteen. WHERE THE TRAIN TRACKS MEET
PART IV
Regression
Fourteen. THE TRIUMPH OF MEDIOCRITY
Fifteen. GALTON’S ELLIPSE
Sixteen. DOES LUNG CANCER MAKE YOU SMOKE CIGARETTES?
PART V
Existence
Seventeen. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS PUBLIC OPINION
Eighteen. “OUT OF NOTHING I HAVE CREATED A STRANGE NEW UNIVERSE”
HOW TO BE RIGHT

Acknowledgments
Notes
Index
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